Saturday, April 7, 2012

Why the election looks good for Republicans...

On The Sidelines

     According to 2011 Gallup polls, the number who identified themselves as Independent voters, has risen sharply since 2006:

Gallup Polls Survey























     Democrats gained the largest share of voters surveyed in 2008, and since then have seen a decline in the number of people who continue to identify themselves as Democrats.

     This graph also indicates that disenfranchised Democrats are hesitant to identify themselves as Republicans, and have settled somewhere in between or beyond association with either political party.
 
     The graph below explains how in 2008, 52% of voters were leaning Democrat and 40% were leaning Republican. As of 2011 only 45% are leaning Democrat, and an equal 45% are leaning Republican. This shows both parties are evenly matched and the general election will likely be a very narrow victory for either party's candidate.

Copyright © 2012 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved, used without permission under Fair Use.



Good News For Republicans:
     Despite President Obama's incumbency and campaign funds advantage, his approval rating is at an all time low, and unfortunately for him throwing money at his campaign may not compensate for his disappointing first term as president.

Obama's Approval Rating Sinks To New Lows

     The catch-22 for Obama, is that because he promised a great deal in 2008, his voters had equally high expectations for the hope and change that he promised to them. The fact that he hasn't delivered much positive change to disparaged Americans, could do harm to him in the general election.

Emerging Social Media
     Supporting Obama was appealing to so many in 2008 because his campaign had a huge organizational push which effectively attracted more attention to one candidate than had ever been seen before. His effort on the ground, and his frequent public speeches and appearances, encouraged a lot of young people to get out and vote. Emotional as well as Logical appeals were able to be pitched to a much larger audience than candidates before him. Whereas before, candidates were at the mercy of major national news outlets, which so often devolve from relevant conversation only to end up on trivialities like "Coke, or Pepsi?". Emergence of social media and internet communication, in my opinion, was one of the determining factors, affecting the snowball of popularity, for the Hope-and-Change-bandwagon in 2008.
 
     The role that internet and social media will have on the 2012 election is important for a couple reasons:

  • Whoever wins on the internet, will likely take the youngest voting blocks, who are relying more on the internet and social media, to investigate and ultimately decide on candidates.
  •  Because of the portability of cell phones with recording, internet and computing capabilities, events will go viral faster, this is one sure thing we will see. Will it be good or bad attention, and for who?
     We will have to wait and see who is able to conjure the internet vote, and whether Obama's overwhelming  focus has desensitized voters to him, as events unfold in this upcoming election.

What Candidate Is Well Positioned On The Internet?



    
Does anybody remember the February Poll?
     In a head to head match up, Ron Paul polled higher than Obama for this poll. The data since then is for paid subscribers only... here is an excerpt that highlights this poll:

 So on one hand Ron Paul defeats the president head to head, and on the other, the GOP itself tells us he is a distant third to two frontrunners who frankly make one question the sanity of every American voter?
source: Zero Hedge

     Only Ron Paul has active organizers on foot and on the internet who can assemble a voter turnout the likes of which have never been seen. With so many voters identifying themselves as "Independent",

The Question Conservative Republicans Should Be Asking Themselves:

What candidate who is still in the running, has the most conservative values AND the best chance of attracting independent, youth and minority votes? Who stands the best chance of winning the general election?

    This person is Ron Paul. The platform he is running on is appealing, because liberty and freedom is a popular idea.



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